Industry leaders in Pakistan have raised serious concerns that the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran could damage the country’s balance of payments if trade routes remain disrupted.
The warning follows reports that Tehran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key international shipping lane through which a large share of Pakistan’s oil supplies pass.
The blockage is expected to push global crude oil prices higher, increasing Pakistan’s import bill. Higher oil costs directly affect energy prices at home and raise production costs for industries that rely on fuel, electricity, and transport. Business groups say this could slow economic activity and reduce export competitiveness.
Chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), Kamran Arshad, warned that exports in March could fall by 10–20 percent if the disruption continues. Pakistani industry exports about $85 million in goods each day. Even a short period of export slowdown could have large financial consequences.
The table below shows key export figures and potential impact.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Daily Exports | $85 million |
| Estimated Export Drop | 10–20% |
| Potential Export Loss (10 days) | ~$1 billion |
| Estimated Import Increase | ~10% |
Industry leaders say rising import costs, especially for crude oil, could increase the overall trade deficit. A larger deficit means more money flowing out of Pakistan’s economy, which puts pressure on foreign exchange reserves and can weaken the local currency.
Officials and business groups have urged the government to explore alternative fuel supply routes and seek greater economic support if the conflict continues. Analysts say the textile sector, which accounts for a large portion of Pakistan’s total exports, is particularly vulnerable, as delays in production and delivery can reduce order fulfilment and profitability.
In addition to energy and export concerns, higher global commodity prices and logistics challenges could slow investment and industrial growth, further affecting economic performance in the coming months.