Pakistan may face a urea shortfall of up to 500,000 tonnes during the Rabi 2026–27 season due to supply constraints, plant shutdown risks, and rising agricultural demand, according to projections by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research.
The assessment shows that fertilizer availability is highly dependent on the operational status of key plants, including Fatima Fertilizer, FFC Port Qasim, and Agritech.
Any partial or full shutdown of these facilities could significantly reduce domestic supply and push buffer stocks into negative territory.
Under a worst-case scenario for Kharif 2026, total availability is projected to fall sharply, leading to tight inventories.
For Rabi 2026–27, even improved operational conditions are expected to leave only limited closing stocks, with buffer levels still negative in most cases.
Officials also noted that urea demand is likely to increase due to improved farm economics, while a large price gap between local and international markets may encourage smuggling, further straining domestic supply.
The ministry highlighted that uninterrupted operations of all ten domestic urea plants are essential to maintaining stability in the fertilizer market.
It also stated that no imports have been assumed in current projections, increasing reliance on local production.
While the DAP fertilizer supply situation remains relatively stable, global price fluctuations and currency pressure continue to affect domestic pricing.
Authorities warned that without timely policy measures, the country could face rising prices and supply shortages in the upcoming crop cycles.
The report stressed the need for strong monitoring, improved coordination, and demand management to ensure adequate fertilizer availability and protect agricultural output.