Pakistan is likely to face a 15% water shortfall during the early part of the Kharif 2026 (summer) crop season, according to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA).
The IRSA Advisory Committee, in its meeting on April 7, 2026, approved the 15% shortfall for the period from April to June 10. For the later Kharif season, the shortfall is expected to be around 5%. The situation will be reviewed again in the first week of May based on actual river inflows and weather conditions.
Currently, the total water storage in the system stands at 2.307 million acre-feet (MAF) as of March 31, the highest level in the last six years. However, long-term problems like heavy sedimentation in Tarbela Dam have reduced its live storage capacity by nearly 48%. This forces greater dependence on seasonal rainfall and glacier melt.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall from April to June, which may help improve water availability.
Provincial water shares for Kharif 2026 have been set as follows:
- Punjab: 33.357 MAF
- Sindh: 30.403 MAF
- Balochistan: 2.868 MAF
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 0.823 MAF
Farmers and agriculture experts are worried about the impact on major summer crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, and maize. The government has urged provinces to manage water carefully and avoid wastage during this critical sowing period.
Efficient water management and better monsoon rains will be key to minimising the effects of this shortfall on the country’s agriculture sector.